Dalam laporan terkini, RHB Research meramalkan penurunan Jumlah Industri Keseluruhan (TIV) untuk jualan kereta di Malaysia, dengan anggaran penurunan kepada 625,000 unit pada tahun 2024 selepas mencapai rekod tertinggi sebanyak 799,000 pada tahun 2023. Syarikat penyelidikan tersebut kekal berhati-hati mengenai prospek industri ini, merujuk kepada ketiadaan faktor yang meyakinkan untuk mendorong jualan dan pendapatan kepada puncak baru.
Seperti yang dilaporkan oleh NST, tahun 2023 menyaksikan prestasi yang kukuh, dengan jumlah pengeluaran keseluruhan mencapai 774,000 unit. Kenaikan ini disumbangkan oleh permintaan tertimbun dan pengenalan model kereta baru. Khususnya, separuh kedua tahun tersebut mengalami peningkatan sebanyak 18% dalam TIV berbanding separuh pertama.
RHB Research menyebabkan prestasi jualan yang luar biasa pada tahun 2023 kepada permintaan tertimbun dan menekankan ketiadaan pendorong yang serupa pada tahun 2024. Penyelidikan ini mengekalkan sikap neutral terhadap industri kenderaan dan bahagian kenderaan, dengan Bermaz Auto (BAUTO) dikenal pasti sebagai pilihan utama disebabkan oleh hasil 10% dan jualan kereta yang kukuh.
In a recent report, RHB Research forecasts a decline in the total industry volume (TIV) for car sales in Malaysia, estimating a decrease to 625,000 units in 2024 after achieving a historic high of 799,000 in 2023. The research firm remains circumspect about the industry’s outlook, citing a lack of compelling factors to propel sales and earnings to new peaks.
As reported by NST, the year 2023 witnessed a robust performance, with the total production volume reaching 774,000 units. This surge was attributed to pent-up demand and the introduction of new car models. Notably, the second half of the year experienced an 18% uptick in TIV compared to the first half.
RHB Research attributes the exceptional sales performance in 2023 to pent-up demand and underscores the absence of similar catalysts in 2024. The research maintains a neutral stance on the auto and auto parts industry, with Bermaz Auto (BAUTO) identified as a top pick due to its 10% yield and resilient car sales.
March was the final month for delivery of new vehicles that were exempted from sales tax, the provision having been allowed by the Finance Ministry after the tax exemption ended on June 30, 2022. Understanding that the demand had been very great as many people wanted to save on the sales tax, and production was not sufficient to fulfill the orders by the deadline, the ministry allowed the car companies until March 31, 2023 to deliver the vehicles booked before the deadline.
The 9-month allowance was certainly appreciated as the industry had production disruptions due to shortages of parts, especially microprocessors. During the second half of last year, vehicle output was inconsistent even though efforts were being made to maximise the numbers, with priority being given to the tax-exempted orders.
Furthermore, March is also the end of the financial year for some car companies and there is usually a final strong push to end the financial year with the best numbers. Thus the March Total Industry Volume (TIV) of new vehicles shot up by 24% to reach 78,849 passenger and commercial vehicles.
After the drop at the start of the year, sales for almost all brands picked up again in February, even though this is the shortest month of the year and typically sees low sales. However, with the urgency to deliver vehicles to those customers who had booked prior to the June 30 2022 deadline for sales tax exemption, many companies rushed to get vehicles registered.
Among the non-Malaysian makes, Toyota has again gotten off to strong start as an indication of its determination to retain the lead in the segment. However, Honda will be putting in a strong challenge this year as it has announced that there will be three all-new models, one of which is known to be the WR-V compact SUV. This takes the brand into Perodua and Proton territory as it will be a rival for the Ativa as well as the X50.
The erratic production volumes reflect the disruptions caused by shortage of parts, especially microprocessors which are needed for the many electronic systems in today’s vehicles. Just one microprocessor not available and the vehicle cannot be completed. Some manufacturers have even taken to sending vehicles out with some features omitted due to the systems lacking the necessary microprocessor. However, some stability is beginning and the plants are able to push out more vehicles.
March should see higher numbers as well since it is the final month for deliveries of those long outstanding orders. It’s also usually a strong month because it is the end of the financial year for some car companies, so there is maximum effort to close their books with the best numbers of the year. And there are also promotions for the Hari Raya festive season to attract buyers.
The first month of the year was a short sales month due to the Chinese New Year festive season, partly the reason for the 35% drop in the Total Industry Volume (TIV) of new vehicles delivered. However, it was not an unexpected drop after the exceptional high of December which recorded the highest sales volume in 2022.
February is also a short month, some years made shorter by festive holidays, so it is also not a month when high numbers are expected. Nevertheless, February saw a jump of 27% from the January TIV to close at 62,649 units.
As expected, sales in July 2022 fell and the Total Industry Volume (TIV) dropped 23% to 48,922 units. The reason was partly due to June being exceptionally high as many people rushed to buy their new vehicles before the sales tax exemption ended. Whatever stocks companies had were quickly exhausted during the month and the TIV might have been higher if there had been more supply.
For those who managed to confirm their bookings by the last day of June 2022, the sales tax exemption will still apply for their new vehicle, provided it is registered not later than March 31, 2023. That should be ample time for the assembly plants to supply the vehicles.
Looking back at 2021, the TIV this year is certainly higher. In July last year, due to the MCO and restrictions, sales fell to less than 7,500 units for the month. On a cumulative basis, the TIV has reached 380,595 units after 7 months, 48% higher than the volume for the same period in 2021.
On the production side, from January to July this year, 369,994 vehicles were assembled locally, almost 126,000 units (52%) more than for the same period last year. However, the chip and parts shortages continue to slow down output as vehicles cannot be completed. This affects both locally assembled as well as imported models since the chip shortage is global.
The Malaysian Automotive Association expects August sales to be at the same level as July. The association revised its annual forecast upwards by 30,000 units to 630,000 units. This means that average monthly sales will have to be about 50,000 units in the remaining 5 months.
The situation at the moment is not a true picture of the state of the market as the number of registered vehicles reported to the MAA is largely dependent on whatever stocks are available from the plants or from overseas. Until the supply situation stabilizes, it will be hard to ascertain the demand since every available unit is delivered as soon as it arrives at the showroom.
While 2021 was a difficult year for the car companies, 2022 has seen significant increase in volumes in spite of the ongoing supply shortage of certain parts, limiting output from the plants. According to the Malaysian Automotive Association, which has been compiling industry data since 1967, the Total Industry Volume (TIV) in the first six months of 2022 was 331,386 units, an increase of 82,208 units or 33%.
This big increase is attributed to the pent-up demand for new vehicles but it has also to be noted that the TIV for the same period in 2021 was low due to the restrictions of the Movement Control Order (FMCO) in June 2021. As can be seen in the chart, the strict restrictions saw a sharp drop in sales.
Following the government’s decision of not extending sales tax exemption incentive for passenger vehicles (under the PEMERKASA+ package) after June 30, 2022, bookings surged as those who wanted to beat the deadline rushed to place bookings for new vehicles. Although they would not get their vehicles before the deadline, the government has allowed the exemption to be allowed provided the new vehicles are registered by March 31, 2023.
This pushed the June TIV to 63,366 units, an exceptionally high volume as companies rushed whatever stocks they had to customers. The figure could have been higher, had there not bee the shortage of vehicles due to the shortages of chips and components which affected certain makes.
The top 5 brands
The top 5 brands retained their 2021 ranks, with Perodua still leading. While volumes rose, the markets shares of Perodua and Proton decreased, but the market shares of the non-national makes rose.
Higher output from factories
Total production volume in the first half of 2022 also increased likewise by 31.8% to reach a total of 317,933 units compared to 241,288 units in the same period last year. The much higher total production volume seen this year was because there was a total lockdown enforced by the government in June 2021 which shut down factory operations. In addition, the higher output was also in response to the high demand.
Forecast revised upwards
For the whole of 2022, the MAA has raised its forecast to 630,000 units in view of the strong and positive market trend. This is 30,000 units more than the original forecast announced at the beginning of the year. This means that during the second half of the year, monthly saves will have to be at least 49,760 units.
In revising its forecast, the MAA has taken various economic and environmental factors into account as well as drawn on input from its members. The association expects the country’s economic recovery to maintain its momentum and the Finance Ministry is maintaining its official GDP forecast of 5.3% to 6.3% for 2022.
However, there are still some factors that can slow the economic growth, such as geopolitical tensions, escalating oil prices, inflationary concerns, and increases in food prices. These may also make consumers hesitate in making purchases, while business in the auto industry may faced increased logistics and shipping costs and experience supply chain disruptions. Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent decision to increase the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.25% may also dampen consumer confidence.
While March saw a big surge in new vehicle sales to take the Total Industry Volume (TIV) past the 70,000-unit level, April’s TIV fell by 23% to 56,213 units of passenger and commercial vehicles.
The decline was attributed by the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) to the following reasons – 1) the ongoing global shortage of microchips as well as certain components and logistics delays, and 2) companies with their financial year ending in March put in maximum effort to close with the highest volume.
While the TIV for April 2021 was 4% higher, the cumulative volume after the first 4 months of this year is 8% higher, with 215,965 vehicles sold. This is made up of 140,905 units of passenger vehicles (excluding pick-up trucks) and 25,560 of commercial vehicles (including pick-up trucks).
Local production has, likewise, also been higher in the first 4 months of 2022, compared to the same period in 2021. The combined output from all the assembly plants was 208.894 units, 10,418 units more than in 2021.
The output in April was also higher this year, with 54,734 units produced, compared to 51,390 units in the same month last year.
Although May is a short working month due to the long holidays during the Hari Raya Aidilfitri period, the MAA expects that the TIV can be as high as April’s. Many companies still have a backlog of orders to fulfill and even if the market takes a ‘breather’, the numbers can still be high. Nevertheless, how many units that can actually deliver will depend on how many vehicles can be completed given the shortage of microchips.
With output from the plants increasing, deliveries in March rose by 62.5% from February to pass the 70,000-unit mark which is one of the highest (if not the highest) in the industry’s history.
Apart from having more stocks, some of the companies with financial years ending on March 31 also put in their final effort to close with the highest possible numbers. Additionally, March also had many business days to sell cars although for many customers, there would still be a lengthy wait, especially for the more popular models.
With the Finance Minister having indicated that the exemption for sales tax won’t be extended again, there is also a rush by customers to get their new vehicles and save money. Again, due to the large number of orders and backlog, some companies are already warning customers that they might not be able to enjoy that saving as their vehicle might not be available before the end of June when the exemption period ends.
Compared to the same month the year before, the Total Industry Volume (TIV) for March 2022 was also notably higher by 13%.
The global shortage of microchips continues to affect carmakers locally as well as in other countries. Members of the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) expect that output will still be disrupted and imported vehicles may not be coming in large numbers.
This is likely to cause April’s TIV to fall in spite of festive promotions for the coming Hari Raya Aidilfitri. The big push in March may also diminish orders although many companies still have a backlog of orders to fulfill.